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Analysis of one-year survival and mortality structure of patients with MM according to data from a multicenter Russian prospective study

https://doi.org/10.35754/0234-5730-2026-71-2-142-160

Abstract

Introduction. Before the introduction of targeted agents, multiple myeloma (MM) was characterized by low overall survival (OS) rates. Survival during the first year of life is a clear indicator of the effectiveness of not only antitumor therapy but also accompanying therapy. Analysis of the cause of death in the MM patient population will allow for refined approaches to diagnosis, antitumor treatment, and accompanying therapy.

Aim: to determine the one-year OS rates in patients with newly diagnosed MM, to study the cause of death, and to estimate the probability of death within the first year after diagnosis.

Materials and Methods. This multicenter prospective study, conducted from January 2015 to October 2018, included 3,184 patients (1,339 men and 1,845 women) with newly diagnosed MM from 40 regions of Russia, aged 24–90 years. One-year OS, one-year mortality, and causes of death were analyzed.

Results. During the follow-up period, 2,307 deaths were recorded, 261 patients were lost to follow-up, and 616 patients continue to receive antitumor therapy or remain untreated. The median OS of patients with MM was 44 months, with a 5-year OS probability of 40 % and a 10-year OS probability of 17 %. Among 2,307 patients with documented fatal outcomes, causes of death were available in 1,350 cases. In 55.7 % (n = 752) of cases, death was determined to be due to MM progression, in 19 % (n = 257) to infectious complications, in 8.2 % (n = 111) to acute cardiovascular failure, and in 4 % (n = 54) to acute kidney injury. Pulmonary embolism was documented in 3.6 % of patients (n = 49), and mesenteric vascular thrombosis was diagnosed in 0.3 % (n = 4) of cases. Acute cerebrovascular accident, both ischemic and hemorrhagic, was diagnosed in 3.7 % (n = 50) of cases resulting in death. A second malignancy was the primary cause of death in 1.6 % (n = 22) of patients with MM. The one-year OS rate for patients newly diagnosed with myeloma from 2015 to 2018 was 82 %. The 5-year probability of death from myeloma progression was 31 %, while the 1-year probability was 9 %. Meanwhile, the 5-year probability of death from causes unrelated to myeloma progression was 45 %, while the 1-year probability was 11 %.

Conclusion. The probability of death from causes unrelated to refractory myeloma was comparable across all age cohorts. This highlights the need for knowledge regarding concomitant therapy and the correction of comorbid factors. Differences in the one-year OS of patients with myeloma were demonstrated depending on the registration center, due to differences in access to second- and subsequent-line anticancer drugs. It is important to note the need to develop a separate treatment strategy for the cohort of patients with myeloma diagnosed in old age.

About the Authors

M. V. Solovev
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

Maxim V. Solovev, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Intensive High-dose Chemotherapy for Paraproteinemic Hemoblastoses

125167, Moscow


L. P. Mendeleeva
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

Larisa P. Mendeleeva, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Prof., Head of the Division of Chemotherapy of Paraproteinemic Hemoblastosis

125167, Moscow


M. V. Soloveva
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

Maiia V. Soloveva, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of the Day Hospital of Hematology and Chemotherapy of Plasma Cell Tumors

125167, Moscow


O. S. Samoilova
Nizhny Novgorod Regional Clinical Hospital named after N.A. Semashko
Russian Federation

Olga S. Samoilova, Head of the Department of Hematology

603093, Nizhny Novgorod


I. L. Davydkin
Samara State Medical University
Russian Federation

Igor L. Davydkin, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Vice-Rector for Scientific Work

443099, Samara


T. A. Gritsenko
Samara State Medical University
Russian Federation

Taras A. Gritsenko, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Hematologist

443099, Samara


K. D. Kaplanov
S.P. Botkin Medical Scientific and Clinical Center
Russian Federation

Kamil D. Kaplanov, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

125284, Moscow


T. S. Kaporskaya
Irkutsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Tatiana S. Kaporskaya, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

664049, Irkutsk


T. V. Shelehova
Saratov State Medical University named after V.I. Razumovsky
Russian Federation

Tatiana V. Shelehova, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Vice-Rector for Clinical Work — Director of the Clinical Center

410012, Saratov


E. M. Volodicheva
LLC “SSMC REGION No. 2”
Russian Federation

Elena M. Volodichevа, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Hematologist

390013, Ryazan


T. I. Pospelova
Novosibirsk State Medical University
Russian Federation

Tatiana I. Pospelova, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Head of the Department of Therapy, Hematology and Transfusiology, Vice-Rector for Research

630051, Novosibirsk


N. V. Skvortsova
Novosibirsk State Medical University
Russian Federation

Natalia V. Skvortsova, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Department of Therapy, Hematology and Transfusiology

630051, Novosibirsk


S. S. Belyaeva
Belgorod Regional Clinical Hospital of St. Joasaph
Russian Federation

Svetlana S. Belyaeva, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

308007, Belgorod


E. O. Gribanova
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

Elena O. Gribanova, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Chemotherapy of Hematological Diseases

125167, Moscow


I. M. Nakastoev
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

Islam M. Nakastoev, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Collection, Processing and Storage of bone marrow and hematopoietic stem Cells

125167, Moscow


I. G. Rekhtina
National Medical Research Center for Hematology
Russian Federation

rina G. Rekhtina, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology and Chemotherapy of Plasma Cell Dyscrasias

125167, Moscow


N. N. Rachkova
Bryansk Regional Hospital No. 1
Russian Federation

Natalia N. Rachkova, Hematologist

241050, Bryansk


M. Ya. Kiseleva
Republican Clinical Hospital named after N.A. Semashko
Russian Federation

Marina Ya. Kiseleva, Hematologist

295017, Simferopol


T. S. Konstantinova
Sverdlovsk Regional Clinical Hospital No. 1
Russian Federation

Tatiana S. Konstantinovа, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

620102, Yekaterinburg


G. R. Gainullina
Orenburg Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.I. Voynov
Russian Federation

Guzalia R. Gainullina, Hematologist

460018, Orenburg


G. B. Kuchma
Orenburg Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.I. Voynov; Orenburg State Medical University
Russian Federation

Galina B. Kuchma, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Hematologist

460018, Orenburg

460000, Orenburg


S. A. Lebedenko
Orenburg Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.I. Voynov
Russian Federation

Svetlana A. Lebedenko, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Hematologist, Deputy Chief Physician for Medical Affairs

460018, Orenburg


M. T. Savinova
City Clinical Hospital No. 16
Russian Federation

Marina T. Savinova, Head of the Department of Hematology

420039, Kazan


S. M. Osyunihina
Republican Clinical Hospital No. 4
Russian Federation

Svetlana M. Osyunihina, Deputy Chief Physician for Medical Affairs

430032, Saransk


E. V. Martynova
Krasnoyarsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Elena V. Martynova, Hematologist

660022, Krasnoyarsk


V. I. Bakhtina
Krasnoyarsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Varvara I. Bakhtina, Head of the Hematology Department, Hematologist

660022, Krasnoyarsk


E. A. Filatova
Amur Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Ekaterina A. Filatova, Hematologist

675028, Blagoveshchensk


T. I. Ksenzova
Regional Clinical Hospital No. 1
Russian Federation

Tatiana I. Ksenzova, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology and Chemotherapy

625062, Tyumen


I. I. Shakirov
Regional Clinical Hospital No. 1
Russian Federation

Ilmir I. Shakirov, Hematologist

 625062, Tyumen


O. E. Ochirova
Republican Clinical Hospital named after N.A. Semashko
Russian Federation

Oksana E. Ochirova, Head of the Department of Hematology

670031, Ulan-Ude


E. V. Voronova
Tambov Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.D. Babenko
Russian Federation

Elena V. Voronova, Head of the Department of Hematology

392000, Tambov


N. N. Glonina
Regional Clinical Hospital named after professor S.I. Sergeev
Russian Federation

Natalia N. Glonina, Head of the Department of Hematology

680009, Khabarovsk


I. S. Verkhoglyad
Regional Clinical Hospital named after professor S.I. Sergeev
Russian Federation

Irina S. Verkhoglyad, Hematologist

680009, Khabarovsk


M. V. Frolova
Vologda Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Maria V. Frolova, Head of the Department of Hematology

160002, Vologda


M. V. Kosinova
Kuzbass Clinical Hospital named after N.A. Belyaev
Russian Federation

Marina V. Kosinova, Head of the Department of Hematology and Chemotherapy

650066, Kemerovo


T. I. Olkhovik
Krasnoyarsk City Clinical Hospital No. 7
Russian Federation

Tatiana I. Olkhovik, Head of the Department of Hematology

660003, Krasnoyarsk


M. A. Mikhalev
Krasnoyarsk City Clinical Hospital No. 7
Russian Federation

Mikhail A. Mikhalev, Hematologist

660003, Krasnoyarsk


T. M. Sycheva
Alexandro-Mariinsky Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Tatyana M. Sycheva, Head of the Department of Hematology

414056, Astrakhan


I. A. Novokreshchenova
Branch Hospital at Smolensk Station of Russian Railways Open Joint-Stock Company
Russian Federation

Irina A. Novokreshchenova, Head of the Department of Hematology

214025, Smolensk


Yu. A. Dunaev
Arkhangelsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Yuri A. Dunaev, Head of the Department of Hematology

1673045, Arkhangelsk


T. V. Chagorova
Regional Oncology Clinical Dispensary
Russian Federation

Tatiana V. Chagorova, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

440071, Penza


M. A. Kunst
Republican Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Mikhail A. Kunst, Head of the Department of Hematology

420064, Kazan


E. N. Zotina
I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University)
Russian Federation

Ekaterina N. Zotina, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Hematologist

119048, Moscow


M. N. Kozmina
Polyclinic No. 2
Russian Federation

Marina N. Kozmina, Hematologist

302040, Orel


V. A. Lapin
Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Valery A. Lapin, Hematologist

150062, Yaroslavl


E. G. Kirillova
Omsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Elena G. Kirillova, Head of the Department of Hematology

644111, Omsk


Ya. D. Tsinchenko
Omsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Yana D. Tsinchenko, Hematologist

644111, Omsk


N. D. Baygishieva
Republican Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Naida D. Baygishieva, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Department of Hematology

367026, Makhachkala


E. V. Tarasenko
City Hospital No. 1 named after N.I. Pirogov
Russian Federation

Elena V. Tarasenko, Hematologist

299011, Sevastopol


E. A. Borisenkova
Kaluga Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Elena A. Borisenkova, Head of the Department of Hematology

248007, Kaluga


E. E. Zinina
Surgut District Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Elena E. Zinina, Head of the Department of Hematology

628408, Surgut


N. B. Popova
Surgut District Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Natalia B. Popova, Hematologist

628408, Surgut


N. I. Stepanova
City Hospital No. 4
Russian Federation

Nadezhda I. Stepanova, Hematologist

462401, Orsk


O. L. Panteleeva
Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Olga L. Panteleeva, Head of the Department of Hematology

600023, Vladimir


A. A. Shutylev
Perm Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Anton A. Shutylev, Head of the Department of Hematology

614990, Perm


N. B. Esefyeva
Ulyanovsk Regional Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation

Natalya B. Esefyeva, Head of the Department of Hematology

432017, Ulyanovsk


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For citations:

Solovev M.V., Mendeleeva L.P., Soloveva M.V., Samoilova O.S., Davydkin I.L., Gritsenko T.A., Kaplanov K.D., Kaporskaya T.S., Shelehova T.V., Volodicheva E.M., Pospelova T.I., Skvortsova N.V., Belyaeva S.S., Gribanova E.O., Nakastoev I.M., Rekhtina I.G., Rachkova N.N., Kiseleva M.Ya., Konstantinova T.S., Gainullina G.R., Kuchma G.B., Lebedenko S.A., Savinova M.T., Osyunihina S.M., Martynova E.V., Bakhtina V.I., Filatova E.A., Ksenzova T.I., Shakirov I.I., Ochirova O.E., Voronova E.V., Glonina N.N., Verkhoglyad I.S., Frolova M.V., Kosinova M.V., Olkhovik T.I., Mikhalev M.A., Sycheva T.M., Novokreshchenova I.A., Dunaev Yu.A., Chagorova T.V., Kunst M.A., Zotina E.N., Kozmina M.N., Lapin V.A., Kirillova E.G., Tsinchenko Ya.D., Baygishieva N.D., Tarasenko E.V., Borisenkova E.A., Zinina E.E., Popova N.B., Stepanova N.I., Panteleeva O.L., Shutylev A.A., Esefyeva N.B. Analysis of one-year survival and mortality structure of patients with MM according to data from a multicenter Russian prospective study. Russian journal of hematology and transfusiology. 2026;71(2):142-160. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.35754/0234-5730-2026-71-2-142-160

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ISSN 0234-5730 (Print)
ISSN 2411-3042 (Online)

125167, Moscow, New Zykovsky proezd. 4
National Medical Research Center for Hematology, Moscow, Russian Federation (Russia)
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